Giving at least one player from every major-league team an All-Star roster spot sometimes means elevating ordinary players from sub-.500 teams.
That’s not the case with any of the four Chicago selections for the All-Star Game next Tuesday, despite the White Sox sitting at 37-49 and Cubs at 38-45.
Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson, who were selected Sunday as reserves, would be right at home in the starting lineups. Cubs starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele have been two of the best in baseball.
Let’s look at the numbers for each Chicago star:
Robert: In a normal season, Robert would be an MVP contender. This season, as long as the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani continues to produce at near his present level, there’s really only one candidate.
Robert’s 147 weighted runs created plus trail only the Rays’ Randy Arozarena’s 155 in the American League, and his 24 home runs are second in the AL to Ohtani’s 31.
A defensive whiz with seven runs saved, Robert has an all-around game that has taken him to 3.8 wins above replacement, as calculated at Fangraphs.com. That ranks second in the AL among position players and designated hitters to Ohtani’s 4.2, but Ohtani also has 1.9 pitching WAR to go with a 7-3 record and 3.02 ERA.
Swanson: Whether measuring by his 10 defensive runs saved, as calculated by Baseball Info Solutions, or his 11.3 defensive runs at Fangraphs, Swanson has been the National League’s top-fielding shortstop.
With nine homers, a .751 OPS on .259/.346/.405 hitting and a 106 wRC+, Swanson has been just a tad above average on offense. All-Star starter Orlando Arcia of the Braves is at 114 wRC+ and has been good in the field with three defensive runs saved or 6.4 Fangraphs defensive runs.
Put it all together, and Swanson leads NL shortstops with a 2.8 fWAR. Arcia, tied for fifth at 1.9, is a good and worthy player, but Swanson as the starter would not have been a reach.
Steele and Stroman: The Cubs’ inconsistency is not the fault of their top two starting pitchers. Steele (9-2) leads NL qualifiers with a 2.43 ERA and Stroman (9-6) is fourth at 2.76.
Steele has struck out 8.02 batters per nine innings and Stroman 7.67. Those aren’t extraordinary numbers. Among the 32 starters with enough innings to qualify for the NL ERA title, Steele ranks 19th and Stroman 22nd in that category.
But both have been successful at inducing grounders. Stroman’s 59.7% ground-ball rate ranks second among qualified NL starters, and Steele’s 51.3% is fourth. And when the ball has been hit in the air, both have been able to keep it in the park. Steele’s .32 homers allowed per nine innings is the lowest rate among qualified NL starters, and Stroman’s .42 is second.
Steele has been the best in the majors at inducing soft contact. Baseball Savant data shows the average exit velocity against Steele at 85 mph, just ahead of Ohtani’s 86.
Through a half-season, Stroman and Steele have positioned themselves not only as worthy All-Stars but as possible Cy Young candidates.
